We are in the "find out" part of the curve

The EU’s decision to draw iPad under the scope of the DMA will ensure that fairness and competition are preserved, EU competition commissioner Margrethe Vestager said in a statement. She said that despite not meeting all the thresholds for being earmarked, an investigation showed that “iPadOS constitutes an important gateway on which many companies rely to reach their customers.

The decision is a loss for Cupertino, California-based Apple, which will have to adapt its operating system to meet a swathe of new obligations and prohibitions, including allowing iPad users to download apps from beyond Apple’s confines as well as being able to uninstall apps preloaded onto devices.

Apple’s iPad Hit by EU’s Digital Dominance Crackdown (AAPL) - Bloomberg

This need not have been a loss for Apple. The right thing to do here was not to fragment their own story and provide at least the same removal of restrictions to iPad OS.

I'll keep an eye out for how soon iPad OS becomes compliant as it will be a sign that they likely expected this but it would have come down to a matter of negotiating position + prioritization.